From the Lionesses of Africa Operations Dept
Question: “What do you get if you wrap all the Economists in the world around the globe end to end?” Answer: “No conclusion…” This was attributed to George Bernard Shaw in May 1933 and he does seem to have a point. With so many conflicting views in the early stages of the Coronavirus attack, even from Scientists who we have always believed live in a binary world rather than the ‘Is it a Science or is it an Art’ world of Economics, should we start to question the worth of forecasting? What conclusions can any of us draw currently?
(Please note that forecasting is very different from strategy. Long term strategy is very important because although we may not know currently how we shall get there or how long it will take (the forecasting bit), we do all need to know the final destination. Please note the ‘all’, it is so important during these dark times to keep the communication going with your employees who will be very unsure of the future. Please re-read our article on 8 practical steps for communication here.)
However, forecasting does after all rely on a known constant to begin the journey. By knowing where we are now, we can forecast where we shall be in 6 months, 1 year, 5 years and so on, with a lowering degree of certainty as we move out.
But do we really know where we are at this exact moment in time? Second waves of Covid-19 seem to be gaining momentum day by day in the Northern Hemisphere. As lockdowns are eased across Africa we are seeing horrific increases in cases and deaths, with the fear of further lockdowns following fast on the heals of decisions made by governments around the globe to reopen in the hope that economies can be brought off life support.
This is the burning platform situation for businesses that requires either agility, quick decisions and fast movement, or…
We wrote recently (here) about the power of a rolling 13 week Budget/Cash Flow forecast for businesses not just in ‘normal’ conditions, but also in a world of uncertainty. This still holds true. We still need these rolling Cash Flow charts as it concentrates the mind on when the next payments are due and what our sales people have in the pipeline. But we have also seen, as Coronavirus wrapped itself around our lives, how the worth of an annual budget dropped dramatically as it became more of a drive through uncharted territory with our eyes closed, and a 5 year business plan become a hope of a distant past rather than something you could nail your flag to.
Coronavirus has been a serious wake-up call to businesses, and just like an ebbing tide reveals the rusty bikes and decaying wrecks on the seabed, so Coronavirus has and will continue to reveal those companies with mortal issues in their Supply Chains, Operations and Cash Flow.
As Unilever’s Chief Supply Chain Officer, Marc Engel in a recent interview with Lucy Harding from Odgers Berndtson said, they have found that although forecasting is still a useful tool, the ability to be agile and nimble trumps this many times over, adding: “Agility trumps forecasting”. Indeed they have changed their sales and operations planning from a four-week cycle with a 13-week horizon to a one-week cycle with a four-week horizon to keep themselves agile.
We hope that by now you have built resilience and strength into your supply chains following our blog in June asking if you could really prepare for a Grizzly Bear attack. Now we need agility and nimbleness in our management structure so that if flames suddenly reappear we can react quickly, firmly and decisively, not get bogged down in decision paralysis and over thinking.
Many CEOs have found that with this ‘burning platform’ created by Coronavirus, projects that their project team had previously told them would take many months (and a huge budget), were instead put in place almost overnight and far cheaper. Such project teams should be lauded for going ‘above and beyond’, but also we suggest the senior management of these companies should now have serious words with their Project Leaders about why in the past it has taken so long to deliver and at such cost.
We have all known for years that meetings for meeting’s sake (i.e. those without a clear purpose that droned on for hours with little or no conclusions and included everyone because no one could be left out in case they became upset), were simply opportunities for grandstanding by many. Perhaps this will be a positive to come out of Coronavirus as meetings are questioned, and a recognition that the grumpy colleague in the corner who would refuse to go to yet another meeting because they never seemed to go anywhere, had a serious point!
As we have all discovered, a great deal can be accomplished quickly and via a conference call with a significantly smaller and streamlined set of decision makers. We wrote here about creating a Board, this does not have to be large, it’s not size, but quality that counts. Someone fresh can see the wood from the trees, can see growth opportunities, the brakes on the business and the approaching cliff edge, this should not be wasted. Note this is different from a Mentor who will not have the same vested interest. A Board member has responsibilities that a Mentor will never have.
The same is true with your Managers where months ago we wrote (here) that managers built, trained and empowered in the simple times are not necessarily automatic choices to lead projects or departments when the platform is burning and decisions have to be taken fast and immediately actioned.
So to summarise:
Cut the meetings.
Cut the number of people invited to meetings.
Cut the length of meetings.
Create a nimble team that you are happy to discuss things with.
Kick out the ‘Yes-Men’.
Find your ‘maverick’ and bring them into your inner circle.
Enjoy the experience of having your thoughts questioned and strange ideas slapped on the table to test you (when the platform is burning maybe the crazy solution IS the solution!)
Then Decide and Enact always with your strategic goal in mind.
You now have your stronger supply chains, you now have your partnerships within your supply chains and customers (“Communicate, Collaborate and Commit to create Confidence”), together with a management structure that has found its inner Nike ‘Just Do It’, this is ‘agility’, this is what being ‘nimble’ looks and feels like.
Let us not lose this new found strength, it will allow you to react faster and clearer the next time the platform bursts into flames, which sadly may be just around the corner.
Stay safe and Be Agile!